Julian Chenery takes a look at the numbers behind the much-vaunted 40-point safety mark that is often brought up by pundits during relegation battles, and finds that the tally needed to stay up is typically less. 

“Is it safe?” repeated Laurence Olivier’s Nazi dentist Christian Szell while drilling down into Dustin Hoffman’s root canals in Marathon Man. “Is it safe?”

Much the same question is played out on the lips of Palace fans each year, who are tortured by the annual survival race. “Are we safe?” – more to the point “WHEN are we safe?”

However, believe it or not, it’s an urban myth that a team needs to reach the 40 point mark to guarantee avoiding the drop. The reality is that in each of the seasons since Palace’s return to the top flight, a much lower points total has usually sufficed.

So as some Palace fans remain as ‘relaxed’ as a ‘Better tweet Street’, or agree with Bob ‘aiming for 10 wins’ White, or as Kevin Day does, prefer the calculations on a crumpled piece of paper – we aim to uncover what, where and when it is safe.

Let’s start with some basic numbers. Here are the bottom three relegation positions since Palace’s first season back in the Premier League in 2013-14, along with that of the lowest surviving team.

POINTS REQUIRED FOR SAFETY = 34
POINTS ACHIEVED BY 17^th PLACED TEAM = 36
NUMBER OF POINTS PALACE ACHIEVED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 12
NUMBER OF PLACES PALACE FINISHED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 7

POINTS REQUIRED FOR SAFETY = 36
POINTS ACHIEVED BY 17^th PLACED TEAM = 38
NUMBER OF POINTS PALACE ACHIEVED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 13
NUMBER OF PLACES PALACE FINISHED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 8

POINTS REQUIRED FOR SAFETY = 38
POINTS ACHIEVED BY 17^th PLACED TEAM = 42
NUMBER OF POINTS PALACE ACHIEVED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 11
NUMBER OF PLACES PALACE FINISHED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 3

POINTS REQUIRED FOR SAFETY = 38
POINTS ACHIEVED BY 17^th PLACED TEAM = 42
NUMBER OF POINTS PALACE ACHIEVED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 11
NUMBER OF PLACES PALACE FINISHED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 3

POINTS REQUIRED FOR SAFETY = 34
POINTS ACHIEVED BY 17^th PLACED TEAM = 36
NUMBER OF POINTS PALACE ACHIEVED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 11
NUMBER OF PLACES PALACE FINISHED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 7

POINTS REQUIRED FOR SAFETY = 35
POINTS ACHIEVED BY 17^th PLACED TEAM = 36
NUMBER OF POINTS PALACE ACHIEVED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 15
NUMBER OF PLACES PALACE FINISHED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 6

POINTS REQUIRED FOR SAFETY = 35
POINTS ACHIEVED BY 17^th PLACED TEAM = 35
NUMBER OF POINTS PALACE ACHIEVED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 9
NUMBER OF PLACES PALACE FINISHED ABOVE TEAM RELEGATED IN 18^th = 4

Did you enjoy all that? From this extremely statistically-basic measurement of what is needed to stay up, you can see that in the seven seasons since Palace were promoted that the points required to avoid the drop have ranged from 34 (twice) to 38 (once). 35 points were needed three times and 36 points once.

In each of those seasons, the team that finished seventeenth actually reached between 35 points (once) and 42 points (once). Of the remaining five clubs, 36 points were reached three times, 38 points (once) and 40 points (once).

So, at no time in the last seven seasons has a team needed 40 points to survive.

The lowest survival mark has been 34 points in 2013-14 and 2017-18, and the lowest points total achieved by a team finishing seventeenth has been 35 in 2019-20.

The highest survival mark has been 38 in 2015-16, and the highest points total by a team finishing seventeenth has been 42 points by Sunderland in 2015-16.

So far as Palace are concerned, we’ve finished between tenth with 48 points (2014-15) and fifteenth (2015-16) also with 48 points!

In that time, we’ve finished between eight (2014-15) and three positions (2015-16) above the drop zone, with a points gap ranging between fifteen (2018-19) and seven points (2016-17).

So, when ‘is it safe’?

In all but one season, a level of around 36 points has meant survival, ie four points lower than the oft-touted forty.

When finishing a secure seventeenth in 2016-17, Watford did in fact achieve the magic 40 mark – but this was six points above eighteenth-placed Hull City.

After six rounds of the 20-21 season, we are sitting happily on 10 points. After 15.8% of matches played, we are 27-28% of the way to safety.

So whether, like Bob, you agree that getting to 10 wins asap is the way to go,  you’re a nervous back-of-an-envelope scribbler like Kevin or you’re as calm as a Street, it’s more likely that Palace need just another 26 points to stay up. At this rate, we could be safe by Match Day 22 at the beginning of February. Then… who knows?

Best ask a Marathon Man!