In our previous assessment of Crystal Palace’s performance this season, we took stock after 10 games, and promised to return after another 10 to see if there was anything new we could learn from the Patrick Vieira revolution, and to establish where the club is most likely to finish in the Premier League table.

As a reminder, we have taken the average points from the past x seasons required for: safety from relegation, a top half finish, and qualifying for Europe. 

What’s changed?

After 10 games, Palace were pretty much on course for finishing comfortably safe from relegation and just short of a top half finish (1.2 ppg) - much like the Roy Hodgson era. Fast forward the additional ten games and Palace… are pretty much on course for finishing comfortably safe from relegation and just short of a top half finish (1.15 ppg) - much like the Roy Hodgson era.

As the number of games has increased, Palace have dropped slightly in their points per game, but only by 0.05 points. For a team of Palace’s size, and the context of a squad rebuild, a transition to a new style of play, and then injuries and COVID-19, this is not too much to be concerned about. Couple that with the style of play that Vieira & Co. are implementing and there is little dissent around Selhurst Park about the direction the club is headed in, even if the points are not dissimilar to the Hodgson era.

Indeed, it probably further strengthens Roy’s legacy as to how well he did with the squad he had and the lack of investment he worked with to keep Palace up and allow us fans to enjoy (mostly!) the new players and style of football we are watching today. 

Nothing to worry about then?

That would be nice! This is Palace, after all… You only have to look at Understat’s xG table to see where the frustrations lay:

Palace have done well in the scoring stakes, but have conceded almost seven more goals than expected, and therefore are a whopping eight points behind where expected, which would put them in sixth place (and well on course for a top half finish and possible Europa League!)

However, this talk of the xG table feels very Brighton & Hove Albion circa 2020/21. There is an old adage in footballing terms that ‘things even themselves out over a season.’ Immediately, the games against Brighton (H), Arsenal (A), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), and Newcastle (H) spring to mind as missed opportunities and self-inflicted wounds, so if the adage proves to be true for Palace this season, then we should expect a few more games to go in our favour when they are perhaps not expected to, right? Well, this will be the next thing to look out for over the upcoming games: our away form.

Palace are 15th in the away form table (six points) and 6th in the home form table (17 points). This is probably fine when you remember that Palace’s away games thus far have included Stamford Bridge, the Etihad, the Emirates, Anfield, Old Trafford, and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, whilst away games at Burnley, Leeds, and West Ham yielded a total of two points (with four from Man City and Arsenal). Essentially, Palace are going to need to put in some big away performances in the second half of the season against the teams directly around them, which is probably a position you would not want to be in when your number one priority as a club is to avoid relegation. 

Any caveats?

Don’t let this detract from what a fine job Vieira has been doing! Despite the points tally not reflecting how much Palace have improved from a footballing point of view, the green shoots are there for all to see the potential the club and the squad has.

Palace have also had the away game versus Watford postponed to to COVID on the away team’s part, and if that game went as FiveThirtyEight predicted at the time, Palace would have an additional three points and feeling even more comfortable with just another 13 points required to secure safety - and with Norwich and Newcastle already looking like they have too much of a mountain to climb, it would be a remarkable collapse to end up in the relegation zone. These postponements have led to some clubs having up to three games in hand on Palace, though - something else to keep an eye on.

We’ll be back in ten games time to see where Palace are sitting ahead of the final stretch of the season (and hopefully with an FA Cup run underway!)